House on the Sand

Jeremy Leggett, a former oil man, wrote an article in ‘The Independent’ (20/1/06) entitled, ‘What they don’t want you to know about the coming oil crisis.’ He wrote:
‘A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of an acute, civilisation-changing energy crisis. … We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use.’

The world consumes more than 80 million barrels of oil a day, 29 billion barrels a year. This figure is rising fast, as it has done for decades. The US government expects that global demand will grow to around 120 million barrels a day, 43 billion barrels a year, by 2025. However there is no way that the oil industry can produce this amount of oil. Leggett says, ‘The most basic of the foundations of our assumptions of future economic well being is rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in history, in terms of its scale and implications.’

The modern industrial world has been built on the supply of energy keeping the electricity supply to our homes and work places running and fuelling our transport system which ensures that goods and people can move from place to place around the world. Without the energy sources – coal, oil, gas and nuclear power – the whole system crumbles.

In America that possibility is beginning to be considered by those who see the phenomenon known as ‘Peak Oil’ as the next big threat to the western way of life. Peak Oil is the point at which oil production reaches a plateau before it declines while demand for oil consumption continues to rise. Once worldwide demand for oil outpaces worldwide production (of oil by a significant margin the price of oil will sky-rocket, oil-dependent economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

Matthew Savinar has written an article on this subject on the internet site [http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net]. He writes, ‘Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global ‘Peak Oil’.’

When will this happen? According to Savinar, ‘Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate ‘a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007,’ which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012.’ Richard Heinberg, in his article ‘Smoking Gun: The CIA’s Interest in Peak Oil’ says ‘A growing consensus of petroleum geologists places this event in the mid-range period of 2006 to 2015.’

Savinar dismisses alternatives to oil as sources of power for the current world system as fantasy. Green alternatives like solar, wind and wave power produce only a tiny fraction of the power now available through oil. Hydrogen as an alternative to oil does not work either due to the huge costs of producing it and the vast problems of storing it. He says there is no time to develop the huge infrastructure needed to switch from an oil based industrial system to an alternative one. Nor is there the political will or the financial capability.

Savinar sees an inevitable collapse of the US economy coming which will drag down the rest of the world. ‘As the driver of the world’s economy, the demise of the US will take down other industrialized countries. The financial dislocations wrought by the coming oil shocks could set the stage for a series of destabilizing resource wars and ‘currency insurgencies’, in much the same way Germany’s financial meltdown during the Weimar Republic of the 1920s set the stage for the rise of Third Reich in the 1930s and World War II in the 1940s.’

Added to all this is the fact that the present suppliers of most of the world’s oil are anything but reliable. 70% of global proven reserves of oil are to be found in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has the world’s largest reserves with 264.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (25% of the world total). Oil from this area is the easiest to extract and export. Recent finds of oil in the Caspian Sea area and in Central Asia are not as great as was originally hoped and these areas are landlocked so getting the oil out involves building pipelines through such unstable regions as Afghanistan to the south or the Caucasus region to the west. The vulnerability of pipelines to terrorism has been shown by the frequent attacks mounted by insurgents in Iraq.

A disruption anywhere could cause market panic and spiralling prices. Texas oil analyst Matt Simmons has written a book ‘Twilight in the Desert’ which warns that the skyrocketing price of oil could plunge the world into war. One spark which could ignite this fire is Iran’s nuclear programme which is causing worry about possible disruptions of the supply of oil from the Middle East. In January 2006 Iran threatened to cut oil supplies if Europe continued to meddle in what it sees as its right to develop a nuclear programme. It has also threatened to block shipping through the Straits of Hormuz at the entrance of the Persian Gulf if its nuclear facilities are attacked. Every day, 15 million barrels of oil pass in tankers through these narrow Straits.

Production of oil is in decline in more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the USA and Britain. Discoveries of large oil fields are decreasing year by year, while the demand for oil is constantly increasing. In particular China and India are already having a major impact on both oil resources and the environment on account of their huge populations and growing numbers of people prospering as a result of economic development. There have been large finds of oil in Russia with deep wells sunk in Siberia. However Russia could well prove an unreliable source of supply.

January 2006 began with a crisis caused by Russia demanding a huge increase in charges to Ukraine for its gas supply and threatening to cut supplies if the price was not paid. Many saw this as Russia punishing Ukraine for its pro Western policies. But the threat to turn off the gas supplies in the middle of winter did not just affect Ukraine. For a few days countries across Europe watched nervously as the crisis unfolded.

The deputy chairman of Gazprom, the giant Russian company that controls the flow of Russian gas to the west came to London to reassure Britain that there would be no risk of disruption to British gas supplies. The very next day, temperatures in Moscow broke a 50-year record, plunging to minus 30C. Gas normally exported was diverted to the home front. Supplies to the West fell. Nervousness on this subject was increased by news reports that Gazprom is seeking to buy a controlling share in British Gas.

As huge price rises for gas supply are announced, the prospect of the source of this supply being in the hands of a power which once confronted the West during the Cold War is hardly reassuring. After all Russian President Putin once wrote a thesis saying that Russia could use its energy resources to regain its global power. Russia supplies a quarter of all the gas used in Europe and 90% of it flows through Ukraine. This supply is scheduled to increase when the giant pipeline now being built under the North Sea from Russia to Germany is completed. Britain will be at the end of the line for this gas which will become vital as our North Sea oil and gas decline.

A crisis caused by oil resources being cut off or a huge surge in the price of oil and gas could plunge the world into chaos. The Bible prophesies such a time coming at the end of this age and compares it to the birth pangs of a pregnant woman. In 1 Thessalonians 5.1-3 Paul writes: ‘But concerning the times and the seasons, brethren, you have no need that I should write to you. For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, ‘Peace and safety!’ then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labour pains upon a pregnant woman’.

When a woman goes into labour a process begins which will lead to the birth of the child. She knows the signs of the impending birth are taking place, but she does not yet see the child and she does not know how long the process will go on for. Today the signs of the second coming of Jesus Christ are taking place – not just some of them but all of them. We do not know how long it will be before the crisis we are describing in this article explodes across the earth, but there is no doubt that it will. When it does the world will enter a period of time described in the Bible as the great tribulation. Jesus describes this period in Matthew 24.21-22: ‘For then there will be great tribulation such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. And unless those days were shortened no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened.’

Anyone can see that our society is built on shaky foundations. Modern technological society lines up with the well known words of Jesus:

‘Whoever hears these sayings of mine and does them, I will liken him to a wise man who built his house upon the rock; and the wind descended, the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house; and it did not fall, for it was founded on the rock. But everyone who hears these sayings of mine and does not do them, will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand; and the rain descended and the floods came and the winds blew and beat on that house; and it fell. And great was its fall.’ Jesus speaking in Matthew 7.24-27.

Sooner or later the storm will come and this house will crash. What will happen to you and me then? The world situation today is pushing humanity towards an unprecedented crisis in human history which will affect all nations of the earth and bring the possibility of the end of all life on earth if God did not step in through the return of Jesus ‘shortening’ those days and bringing the time of human mis-management of the planet to an end.

Despite all this there is a glorious hope for the future. Jesus said ‘When these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near.’ Luke 21.28. These things have begun to happen so we should look to the return of the Lord Jesus as the hope for the world. While people without faith are described by Jesus as experiencing heart failure for fear at the things which are coming on the earth (Luke 21.26), the believer has a totally different expectation: ‘We should live soberly, righteously and godly in the present age, looking for the blessed hope and glorious appearing of our great God and Saviour Jesus Christ.’ Titus 2.12-14.

As the lights go out all over the world, the light of faith and hope in Jesus will never go out in the heart of those who really believe in Him. In order to escape the coming collapse of oil based industrial society, Mr Savinar, in the article already quoted suggests that people should ‘relocate to an area as least vulnerable to these issues as possible’. But for many people that will not be a viable option and it will not save you anyway. As in the days of Noah there will be no escape.

But the Lord has a plan to relocate His people: ‘For the Lord Himself will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of an archangel, and with the trumpet of God. And the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive and remain shall be caught up to meet the Lord in the air. And thus we shall always be with the Lord.’ 1 Thessalonians 4.16-17.

This event, known as the Rapture of the Church, will take place unexpectedly and unannounced like a thief coming in the night. At that moment those who are saved will be taken to a place of safety before the judgements fall on the earth in the great tribulation period.

In the light of all this there is only one hope for the world. The return of Jesus. The human race has blown our chances of saving the world by ourselves already.

The world system today will not stand because it is on the wrong foundations. But when everything else is shaken, God’s kingdom cannot be shaken. In order to enter God’s kingdom Jesus says ‘You must be born again’ (John 3.7) not physically but spiritually by turning from sin and unbelief to faith in God who raised Jesus from the dead when He had paid the price for our sins and will raise with Him all who put their trust in Him.
If you have not yet made that step I urge you to do so without delay. Here is a prayer which you can say to accept salvation through Jesus the Messiah.

‘Dear Heavenly Father, I admit that I am a sinner and need your forgiveness. I believe that Jesus the Messiah died in my place, shedding His blood to pay for my sins, and that He rose again from the dead to give me eternal life. I am willing right now to turn from my sin and accept Jesus the Messiah as my personal Saviour and Lord. I commit my life to you and ask you to send the Holy Spirit into my life, to fill me and to take control and to help me become the kind of person you want me to be. Thank you Father for loving me. In Jesus’ name, Amen.

Much of the information in this article is taken from a new book written by Tony Pearce, ‘The House on the Sand’.

Prerequisites in Stocks Investing

Some people think that investing in stocks is as easy as going to a 7-eleven convenience store and buying what you want. However, in my opinion, to be able to become successful in investing in stocks you need to have a proper knowledge and proper discipline. Based on my own experience, below are the 7 prerequisites that you need to do before venturing in stocks investing:

1. Put your finances in order

I remember one of my friend asked me, “How can I invest in that “stock” thing that you’ve mentioned? I’m really interested in trading stocks to earn money. But first, can you lend me some money because I used up my salary in buying a new netbook and I need to pay my electricity bill …”

Imagine! How can someone think of investing in stocks when he can’t even prioritize his expenses. People who invest in stocks without proper financial plan will either end up more broke or in jail. Reason is because they are the one that gets emotional and panic during the bear market and loses money. Also beware of turning the stock market into online casino as it can be addicting and like any gambling will result to losses. If you’re in debt and you’re living hand to mouth, you should first make a budget plan and payment plan to reduce/eliminate your debt by prioritizing expenses and cost cutting. Only once you are out of chaos then you can proceed to the next step.

2. Save money consistently and religiously

Saving money is actually a co-requisite and/or integrated to your debt-payment and budget plan mentioned in number 1. The “Pay Yourself First” mantra that you’ve always heard is true and effective. And when I say “save money religiously”, I literally mean you need to do it as if it is a mortal sin not to save money. Make frugality a habit and you are guaranteed of achieving the wealth that you have been dreaming of. In any investment, money is needed either for capital or perhaps for your personal needs while waiting for the result of your venture so there’s no such thing as starting business at absolute zero capital. (or maybe there is … in Neverland).

3. Create an Emergency Fund

Emergency Fund is a reserved money that you can use in case of emergency like accident, sickness, death, losing your job, or anything that you can define as emergency. I’m not trying to scare you but things like these are not impossible to occur.

Stock investing should be long term and so I always tell my friends to invest only spare money or money that you will not need in the near future. To be more objective, you can invest money that you will not need in the next 5-10 years or even longer. If you have an emergency fund, this will serve as your cushion to protect you during emergency without forcing you to sell your stocks at a loss. Having this fund will also keep your sanity no matter what happen to the market be it bear, bull, pig or any animal type of market. Here in Korea, it is common to hear news about people committing suicide during the 2008 financial crisis so keep this step a must. In my case, I put up an emergency fund that is equal to my annual expenses. Consensus dictates at least 6 months worth of your living expenses.

4. Study about Stocks and Financial Management

There are a lot of technical words or trading jargon in the stock market world and it is important to learn it to avoid mistakes. In my history of stock investing, the first and only loss I incurred is when I bought MEG without understanding about warrants. In addition, you need to be savvy in personal finance management since stock investing is just part of your portfolio. As a golden rule in personal finance, don’t invest everything in stocks. You should consider bonds, money market, mutual funds, real estates and etc as other instruments of diversification and be the expert yourself in optimizing your risk and return.

5. Know the listed companies

The common mistake of investors is investing in ticker symbols and their corresponding charts. They didn’t even know what is the business of those companies. (Heck, they didn’t even know what the ticker symbol stands for!). I tried to study technical analysis before but all I see was unpredictable trend of stock price. Maybe I was wrong, but relying solely on charts for stock picking are nothing but a logical fallacy wherein all people say “this shit is expensive and precious so you should buy it”.

If you go back to the definition of stocks, stocks are pieces of a business. If this is the case, it is only rational to know whether the stocks you’re buying is of the companies that are profitable and well manage. However, some people only want to earn big time without exerting effort and so engaged to the “Bigger Fool’s Game” in stock market. You could earn from this game but one day you will become the Biggest Fool of them all.

How to learn these companies? Visit the company websites or download and read the latest financial statement. Yes I know that it is time consuming but nothing is free in this world. Also, you don’t need to read the financial statement from cover to cover but focus on the operation and financial discussion. In fact, in my analysis, only 5% of these hundred pages are only needed to be able to get the full grasp of the company situation. I will discuss about financial statement in my future post.

6. Practice first without using money

If you’ve done the first 5 steps, then you are almost there. However, just like in sports you need to do some practice first before the actual event. What I did during that time is I do dummy trading without money using the PSE Stock Trading Game. This is free and all you have to do is to sign-up and start trading with virtual money worth PHP 1Million (again, it is just a dummy so don’t get carried away).

The point of this exercise is to acclimatize yourself in trading without the risk of losing money. It is a vital step for me that I integrated with Step 4. Interestingly, after more than 1 year when I stop playing the game, when I check again my dummy trading account, my portfolio earns more than my actual portfolio. This prove that investing in long term without emotional intervention is more profitable technique than daily monitoring the market … it was a lesson learned.

7. Open a trading account

The final step is to open your trading account. My suggestion is to choose only the brokerage that has a tie up with your bank. This will make your fund transfer more convenient and also it is less risky than the fly-by-night brokerage company. If you have questions about opening a trading account feel free to ask questions or visit the website of your brokerage company.

China and the Global Recession – Part 1 – The Domestic Situation

The consensus of mainstream China analysts is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a unified entity that is destined to guide China into a new golden where it will enjoy global superpower status. This sanguine narrative maybe challenged as the current global economic recession has served to elucidate the genuine fragility of China’s political economy. Stability in the immediate future, let alone, decades from the present is not a fact to be taken for granted, but a likely possibility to be continuously observed and evaluated.

The Chinese leadership is less of a cohesive organism than a mixture of overlapping and competing regional, ideological, and institutional interests. This leaves China vulnerable to conflict. The glue that binds the various CCP factions and the monied elites is a vast patronage system made possible by 20 years of unprecedented economic growth, no Maoism or a constitutional “balance of powers”. The Chinese elite are conscious of this. Even President Hu Jintao recognized the importance of various factions to maintaining national stability by designating two possible successors from divergent ideological perspectives, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The CCP has also been touting the phrase “zhengdi tuandui” (team of rivals) in the media, in reference to political cooperation, which seem to be part of President Hu’s larger goal of creating a “Harmonious Society”. China’s ability to realize this harmony is heavily dependent on the financial liquidity that feeds its “Leviathan”.

Most sources will site China as the third largest economy in the world, just behind Japan; however, according to the World Bank and IMF (2007 figures), China has the world’s second largest economy, if Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PRC (People’s Republic of China) has $1.9 trillion USD in foreign exchange reserves, which provides it with a measure of security against the current global recession.

Unlike the world’s two largest economies, America and Japan, China will likely avoid a domestic recession, but it has not escaped unscathed. From October to December last year, a collapse in exports only exacerbated the slowdown in China’s growth already occurring since January 2008. The latter was actually purposely created by the implementation of domestic banking policies intended to fight inflation. By the 4th quarter of 2008 growth had slowed to a meager 6.8 percent, and the Chinese stock market had also lost 65 percent of its value (roughly $3 trillion USD).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, recently made the optimistic prediction, that despite the economic downturn, China will see an 8 percent economic growth rate in 2009. Even an 8 percent growth rate would still fall under the decade average of 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), being less assured, projected China’s 2009 growth at just 6.7 percent. It should be remembered that Chinese figures should always be viewed with healthy skepticism due to weaknesses in data collection and ambitious local officials seeking to aggrandize themselves before their superiors. Counterintuitively, some analyst actually believes, overall, China routinely understates growth to avoid the appearance of an economic bubble.

It is likely that the source of Wen’s confidence is the Chinese government’s proposed stimulus plan and the current state of the banking system. Chinese banks have limited international exposure; being less integrated, they were not as affected by the financial crisis. The PRC’s $584 billion USD (~4 trillion Yuan) stimulus package is roughly 6% of its total GDP. The package will focus on training migrant workers, R&D and improving infrastructure. There is also a special emphasis placed on improving domestic companies’ international competitiveness by streamlining the approval process for these companies to make foreign acquisitions, especially in automotives; textiles; energy; electronics and machinery sectors.

China’s banks are funding this corporate expansion by lending at a higher rate than at any time within the last year. It is expected that Chinese corporate investment of $16.3 billion last year could double this year. Globally the value of mergers and acquisitions has dropped by over 35%. Chinese companies have particularly focused on buying up billions of dollars in strategic natural resource assets in Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and France. The Chinese government has used loans in Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela to ensure state owned energy companies secure deals. For example, China will supply up to $25 billion in loans to Russia in exchange for long term deals for the China National Petroleum Corporation. This will likely spur further concerns over future availability and price of these resources in nations that are in competition for them.

This is a sea-change in activity considering the attitude of the CCP in 2007. In that year, the CCP established credit quotas that domestic banks were subject to and they were continually adjusted upwards by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as inflation became a significant concern. Exports grew only 9.4 percent for 2008 a downward trend from the decade’s average of 20 per cent. Export growth in January 2009 was -17.5 percent, industrial production also dropped. After the conditions of the last two years, the state-owned banks (SOBs) are quite willing to follow the stimulus mandate to increase lending and they also cannot now be held responsible for future nonperforming loans. Much of the stimulus money will be cycled through the banks and loaned to State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. The CCP Standing Committee, partially in response to current and anticipated public pressure, have already made vague comments about the need for more transparency in how the stimulus package is spent, to head off corruption that could lead to public outrage.

China’s financial liquidity is largely a result of its people’s exceptionally high savings rate; China’s households save nearly 25% of their disposable, although they get low or even negative rates of return from the banks and financial markets. The recent decrease in exports has inversely effected employment, making the situation of the most vulnerable citizens precarious. The Asian Development Bank has found that China has one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates. In 2004, the combined income of the richest 20 percent being 11.4 times the aggregate income of the poorest 20 percent. These numbers have gotten progressively worse every year since. China has been trying to grow its domestic market, but consumption was low before the global recession and savings high due to the lack of social safety nets. There are three year plan to provide universal health care and education. Currently, Chinese consumer spending accounts for only 35 percent of China’s GDP, whereas in America it is two-thirds.

By February of 2009, there were 20 million unemployed migrant workers, which was double the estimate of December 2008; and an additional 6 to 7 million low skilled rural residents are expected to join the migrant workforce, as many multinationals are cutting back or shutting down factories. For the employed, raises in salary have fallen for the first time in 4 years. The only upshot is that wage deflation somewhat halts China’s recent loss in price competitiveness regional revivals, such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Cambodia.

There has been much talk in the Western media over the last year concerning Chinese government crackdowns on ethnic minorities in the provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, but this behavior is not isolated to minorities on the periphery of China Proper; to the contrary, the majority of these actions seems to be in response to the uptick in “mass incidents” in Han majority areas.

The Chinese government has hired more than 40,000 state employees to police the 250 million Chinese that are on the internet in an effort known as the “Golden Shield Project”. Thousands of websites have been banned or censored and even text messages have been filtered. Many analysts supposed the increase in arrest and crackdowns were temporary, due to sensitivity around the Olympics Games, but this has proven incorrect. The crackdowns are directed at any criticism of the government that could cause poplar discontent, such as the “Tainted Milk Scandal” and last springs’ Sichuan Earthquakes, as well as any talk of democracy, Taiwan, Tibet, and other such contentious issues. It maybe that this is a two pronged approach, as Premier Wen, in early March, made his first internet address to the online Chinese community to encourage controlled discussion as an alternative to citizens possibly taking to the streets of China’s major cities.

The Chinese government has not published official figures on “mass incidents”, a CCP term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year. Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000. Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. The weak performance of the PAP in the pre-Olympic riots in Tibet, which resulted in the PAP forces reportedly losing control of the situation and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become involved, surely caused alarm inside the CCP and the military. In January 2009, President Hu gave an ominous warning that the People’s Armed Police (PAP), that they will face difficult challenges ahead.

There has also been an increase in the number of “black houses,” unofficial jails for citizens that exercise their right to petition the national government in Beijing, a last desperate attempt to addresses grievances with provincial officials peacefully. The Chinese government denies the existence of these jails, but citizens are being abducted off the street, usually at the behest of local party cadre, in or in route to Beijing, to prevent them from filing embarrassing appeals. The state media has reported that 10 million such petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as unjust taxation, illegal land seizures and unpaid wages.

The fundamentals of the Chinese economy may be strong, but they are not “harmonious”. The history of China is instructive; in that, most revolutions in China have come from rural areas in bad economic times when the central government is seen as impotent, having lost the “Mandate of Heaven”. This “right of rebellion” against an unjust or ineffective rule has been a part of Chinese political philosophy since the Zhou Dynasty (1045 BC to 256 BC). The CCP is acutely aware of this history; its own origins lie in a rural populist movement led by a charismatic leader against a corrupt and incompetent regime. The CCP has also been a diligent study of how perestroika and glasnost led to the fall of the Soviet Communist Party.

The current global economic crisis has revealed significant cracks in China’s political and economic system. Harmony will be heavily dependent on the length of the global downturn and how adaptive and not reactive the CCP is to changing circumstances. It will also be contingent upon if the CCP earnestly intends to make substantive movements toward greater freedom of speech, tort reform, restraining graft and banking reform. If recent overture from the party elites are just a guise designed to ride out any potential threats to party power by strengthening security forces and drawing out potential enemies, this could be catastrophic, especially if the party’s patronage system’s life-blood does indeed dry up, corruption could increase in tandem with poverty. These twin forces would disproportionately strike rural areas, where most Chinese still live. In this situation the CCP’s “Great Wall” against the people will be the security forces. Due to the fractious nature of Chinese politics, it is quite possible that some members of the elite, especially of the tuanpai (populist faction) or even the military, could exploit this situation to their own political advantage. They could use populist appeals targeted to the urban poor and rural peasants to weaken their rivals. Hopefully the global economic downturn will be short lived or those who keep predicting China’s inevitable success will have to hedge their bets on the CCP reforming itself in a crisis. Historically, power does not willingly concede when under threat.

By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau

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